Q1 2017 XRP Markets Report

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In order to continually improve the health of XRP markets globally, we will share regular updates on the state of the market including quarterly sales, commentary on previous quarter price movement and related company announcements.

季度销售额
在第一季度,市场人士直接从 XRP II, LLC*(Ripple 的注册和许可货币服务企业 (MSB))购买 670 万美元。这些买方实际上往往是公共机构,他们的购买包括由于后续大量销售而有助于减轻市场不稳定风险的限制。

Market Commentary: A Quiet Start to a Raucous Ending
Though Q1 2017 began much in the same way as Q4 2016, quietly, it ended with a dramatic spike in market activity.

1 月和 2 月日均波幅**下降至 2.47%,明显低于第四季度的 3.26%。前两个月的平均每日成交量下降至 122 万美元,比第四季度下降 55%,价格缓慢下跌,略微触及 3 月初的 0.00538 美元,是 2016 年 5 月以来未见的水平。活动下降的大部分原因可能是由于几家知名市场商家的临时退出,或者是通过希望其 ETF 批准来推动 BTC 的相对需求。无论什么原因,2017 年第一季度是长期以来最具挑战性的 XRP 市场之一。

A bright spot was Bitstamp’s successful launch of XRP for USD, EUR, and BTC currency pairs on January 16th. That alone was not enough to turn the tide however, and XRP markets failed to show much life until March 23rd, what was easily the most significant day of the quarter.

On March 23, XRP rallied from $0.0072 to $0.0112, a 56% price increase on an impressive $19.7M in volume, a 1103% increase over the average daily volume up to that point in Q1. Clearly something had changed, but why such a powerful shift in sentiment? Though always difficult to discern in real time, in hindsight, a few key developments may have had an impact.

  • As the month drew to a close, the Bitcoin scaling debate raged on with no end in sight.
  • Throughout the quarter, Ripple, became more vocal about its commitment to XRP and the Ripple Consensus Ledger (RCL) as part of its long-term strategy.
  • Ripple announced a new relationship with BitGo to build an enterprise wallet, as well as Payment Channels and Escrow, important RCL features that increase transaction throughput to levels comparable with those of Visa’s network.
  • Ripple continued to sign up banks to commercially deploy its enterprise blockchain solution and join its global payments network. Announcements included the addition of MUFG, the world’s third largest bank, 47 banks in Japan and network expansion into the Middle East and India through NBAD and Axis Bank.

The last point is particularly important. Markets are clearly connecting the dots that banks which join the Ripple network today are prospective users of XRP liquidity in the future. Growing bank membership of the Ripple network creates opportunities for Ripple to deepen those customer relationships and cross-sell liquidity solutions built on XRP, all of which should be beneficial to the asset.

Lastly, there are a few data points which warrant close monitoring going forward. The percentage of off-ledger trading was only 25.2% in Q4, but that leapt to 71.1% in Q1. Interestingly, and very much related, the percentage of XRP flows that originated from BTC in Q4 was only 45.1%, and that grew to 66.6% in Q1. The data suggest most of the growth in trading volume is coming from off ledger BTC/XRP activity, which supports the theory that the rally in Q1 was driven by market recognition of Bitcoin’s risks, as well as XRP’s advantages.

Why is this significant? In Q1 2017, XRP grew substantially in both price and volume due to off-ledger inflows via Bitcoin. In order for any asset to be successful it needs ample liquidity, something XRP attracted during the quarter. This was a reassuring sign of progress towards the eventual fiat liquidity XRP requires to ultimately be successful for payments, its natural use case.

Q2 2017
We’ve put our ear to the ground and have been listening to important feedback from the XRP community. This includes the need for greater visibility and transparency into Ripple’s vision, strategic use cases for XRP, and plans to increase liquidity and decentralization. To that end, we plan to increase our communications cadence to address this feedback. We also look forward to having a large presence at Consensus in New York in May.

In addition, you may want to watch out for specific announcements in Q2 regarding potential ways to use RCL’s new Escrow feature, as well as our plan to implement a systematic markets operation program designed to add liquidity to the market especially during volatile periods.

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*XRP II, LLC is licensed to engage in Virtual Currency Business Activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services.

**Volatility calculated using standard deviation of daily lognormal returns.